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Calculated Risks has ratings and 46 reviews. Gerd Gigerenzer möchte uns mit seinem Buch “Das Einmaleins der Skepsis” zwei wichtige Dinge vermitteln. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk. Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian Edwards. Bad presentation of .. the United States as Calculated risks: how to know when numbers deceive you. New York: Simon.

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Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. Well thanks for joining us, SciAm article authors, better late than never!

Caclulated breast cancer, there are several.? Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don’t understand risk any better than anyone else. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. Giyerenzer, mistakes that would have been obvious had Dershowitz used frequencies instead of probabilities.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

However, it can be much simpler and much more instinctive when it’s written in frequency: In order to post comments, please make sure JavaScript and Cookies are enabled, and reload the page. Any symptom or evidence comes with certain degree of uncertainty and evaluating that uncertainty is a crucial step towards conclusion. The book is largely slanted toward other similar examples in health and medicine; the chapter on DNA evidence and how poorly it’s presented in court was eye opening.


This book offered me that unique experience when you have felt something to be true for so many years in your life but never quite knew how to put words to the m Although this book was pretty dense and took me a while to read, I think Gigerenzer did an excellent job of explaining often convaluted and complex statistical reasoning in simple terms so that a common non-mathematically excitable person can see the error that so many professionals doctors, lawyers, and scientists make every day.

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Last year, a middle-age woman I know presented a suspicious mammogram during routine breast cancer screening. Other editions – View all Calculated Risks: Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven’t learned statistical thinking, we don’t understand risk and uncertainty. Furthermore, many screenings involve the use of falculated technology that can actually INDUCE cancerous cells to begin growing. Shopbop Designer Fashion Brands.

Kindle Cloud Reader Read instantly in your browser. Ersten, dass wir uns ‘ Overall I’m really interested in the concepts covered. People have had breasts removed on the basis of faulty screening that they were enticed into receiving given the impressively high but mostly irrelevant measure of relative, versus absolute, risk reduction.

Gigerenzer studies brochures from these breast cancer awareness groups in Germany and the U.

I cannot recommend this book enough. Account Options Sign in. Researchers and marketers of diagnostic tests are generally woefully mayb People suck at probabilities. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent.

November 10, Sold by: Return to Book Page. There was a problem filtering reviews right now. You will find the answer, and the explanation of the answer, enlightening.


Mich hat dieses Buch sehr fasziniert und begeistert. This book is exactly the same as “Reckoning with Risk” by the same author. I myself has encountered such a false positive.

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You – Gerd Gigerenzer – Google Books

This was an extended essay on reasoning using conditional probabilities and Baye’s theorem. How is the uncertainty of a test calculated?? The main themes are strong but few, and I got bogged down in the many too many examples.

In order to assess risk — everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening calculatec — we need a basic understanding of statistics. Want to Read saving….

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

I especially liked the chapters on better ways to explain likelihood in unit terms instead irsks relative percentage chances, which can be highly misleading and inflammatory. Notify me of new posts by email. Amazon Giveaway allows you to run promotional giveaways in order to create buzz, reward your audience, and attract new followers and customers.

Of these 8 women, callculated will have a positive mammogram true positives. I was surprised to find myself enjoying reading a book about statistics. Recommended as further reading by Ben Goldacre in Bad Science.